Publications and Recent Projects

"Supply or Demand? Policy Makers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis" CEPR DP17232, April 2022. (joint with Sanjay R. Singh)

"Hysteresis and Business Cycles", Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming. (joint with Valerie Cerra and Sweta Saxena).

"Was the ICO boom just a sideshow of the Bitcoin and Ether momentum?" Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, September 2022 (joint with Franklin Allen and Beatrice Weder di Mauro)

"Can central bank digital currency transform digital payments?" In Central Bank Digital Currency: Considerations, Projects, Outlook, CEPR Press, November 2021.

"The Elusive State of Full Employment?" CEPR DP16535 September 2021.

Market Structure, Regulation and the Fintech Revolution, in Fostering fintech for financial transformation: The case of South Korea. CEPR, London. 2021.

“Fighting the Scarring Effects of COVID-19” Industrial and Corporate Change , Volume 30, Issue 2, April 2021 (joint with Valerie Cerra and Sweta Saxena).

The Bank Business Model in the Post-COVID-19 world, June 2020, CEPR (joint with Elena Carletti, Stijn Claessens and Xavier Vives).

"Fiscal Policy, Potential Output and the Shifting Goalposts". IMF Economic Review (2019).

"The Motives to Borrow", (joint with Atish R. Ghosh, Ugo Panizza, and Andrea F. Presbiter). In Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners (IMF), 2019. Oxford University Press.

The Economics of Fintech and Digital Currencies, VoxEU eBook (ed). March 5, 2019.

"The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations" (joint with Lawrence H Summers), Journal of International Economics, 2018. [Journal version.]

"The Agenda for Structural Reform in Europe". ", in After the Crisis: Reform, Recovery and Growth in Europe, Oxford University Press, 2016.

"Putting the Budget on a Sound Footing: The Experience of the Irish Fiscal Consolidation", Ireland, Lessons from its Recovery, IMF special report, 2016.

"Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth". (joint with Ilian Mihov). Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2013.

"Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool". The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3), 2012.

"Fiscal Policy and the Current Account." (joint with S.M. Ali Abbas, Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe, Paolo Mauro and Ricardo C. Velloso). IMF Economic Review, 59(4), 2011.

Fiscal Policy at a Crossroads: The Need for Constrained Discretion”, (joint with Ilian Mihov), on Completing the Eurozone Rescue: What More Needs to be Done?”, edited by Richard Baldwin and Daniel Gros, an CEPR, June 2010.

"Macroeconomic Policy: Does it Matter for Growth". (joint with Ilian Mihov). World Bank Commission on Growth and Development (48), April 2009.

"Another Challenge to China's Growth", (joint with Ilian Mihov). Harvard Business Review, March 2009.

"The Euro and Fiscal Policy", (joint with Ilian Mihov), January 2009. Also NBER Working Paper No 14722. Forthcoming in The First Ten Years of the Euro, edited by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press).

"EMU at Ten: Should Sweden, Denmark and the UK Join, Chapter 3, Fiscal Policy", (joint with Ilian Mihov). This is one of the chapters of the report put together by the SNS Economic Policy Group (SNS, Stockholm). January 2009.

"The Stabilizing Role of Government Size". (joint with Javier Andres and Rafael Domenech). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, July 2008.

Fiscal Policy, Volatility and Growth” (joint with Ilian Mihov), on Prudence or Abstinence: Fiscal Policy, Stabilization and Growth edited by Timothy Irwin, Guillermo Perry, Luis Servén and Rodrigo Suescún, World Bank, October 2007.

"Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy". (joint with Ilian Mihov and Andrew K. Rose). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2007. The zipped Stata data set and a longer version are also available.

Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion: The case of U.S. States”, (joint with Ilian Mihov). Journal of Public Economics, 90 (1), 2006.

"The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion". (joint with Ilian Mihov) Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2003. You can also download the data (including the volatility measure) as well as the Stata programs in zipped format.

On Restricting Fiscal Policy in EMU”, (joint with Ilian Mihov). Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 19(1), 2003.

"Fiscal Policy and EMU: Challenges of the Early Years". (joint with Ilian Mihov). EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, Eds. Marco Buti and Andre Sapir. Edwar Elgar Publishing, 2003.

"The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth" Economic Growth: Sources, Trends and Cycles, Eds. Norman Loayza and Raimundo Soto, Central Bank of Chile, 2002.

"Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes". (joint with Andrew Rose). IMF Staff Papers, 48, November 2001. The data set is available in STATA, Excel or ASCII format.

"Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation". (joint with Ilian Mihov). Moneda y Credito, 212, 2001.

"Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence", (joint with Ilian Mihov). Journal of International Economics, October 2001.

"Intranational Migration: Business Cycles and Growth" Intranational Macroeconomics Eds. Eric van Wincoop and Greg Hess. Cambridge University Press, October 2000.

"Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-Run Persistence and Economic Growth". Journal of Economic Growth, June 2000.

"Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends". Journal of Monetary Economics, February 2000.

"Effects of EMU on the Spanish Business Cycle". In The Euro and the Spanish Economy. Fundacion Banco Bilbao Vizcaya , 1999.

"Does EMU Need a Fiscal Federation?" Economic Policy, April 1998.

"Multipliers: Imperfect Competition or Increasing Returns to Scale?," Economic Letters, December 1997.

"EMU: Countries or Regions? Lessons from the EMS Experience," European Economic Review, April 1997. Reprinted in The Economics of Regional Policy, Eds. Harvey Armstrong and Jim Taylor, The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics Series, Edward Elgar Publishing, November 1999.

"Irreversible Investment and Strategic Interaction," (joint with Andrew Metrick), Economica, February 1997.

"International Business Cycles and the Dynamics of the Current Account," (joint with Graham Elliott), European Economic Review, February 1996.

"Regional Labor Market Dynamics in Europe," (joint with Jorg Decressin), European Economic Review, December 1995. Reprinted in The Economics of Regional Policy (November 1999), Eds. Harvey Armstrong and Jim Taylor, and in The Political Economy of Monetary Union (forthcoming), Eds. Paul de Grauwe. Both of them are volumes of The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics Series, Edward Elgar Publishing.

Other Publications

“The short-lived high-pressure economy”. published at, October 27, 2021.

The conflict between CBDC goals and design choices. published at, May 21, 2021.

"Are the current "automatic stabilisers" in the Euro Area Member States sufficient to smooth economic cycles?", paper written for the European Parliament Think Tank, 2020.

The Economics of Fintech and Digital Currencies, introduction to a new VoxEU eBook. March 5, 2019.

Initial coin offerings: Fundamentally different but highly correlated (joint with Beatrice Weder di Mauro), published in Economics of Fintech and Digital Currencies at

Cryptocurrencies' Challenges to Central Banks. (joint with Beatrice Weder di Mauro), published at May 14, 2018.

Making (some) Sense of Cryptocurrencies: When Payments Systems Redefine Money. (joint with Beatrice Weder di Mauro), published at May 7, 2018.

As Cryptocurrencies Rise, Who Needs Banks? (joint with Beatrice Weder di Mauro), published at May 7, 2018.

Recoveries: The Missing Third Phase of the Business Cycle (joint with Ilian Mihov) published at August 14, 2013.

Fiscal Policy and Global Imbalances (joint with Ali Abbas, Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe, Paolo Mauro and Ricardo Velloso) published, September 10, 2010.

Fiscal Policy at a Crossroads (joint with Ilian Mihov) published at, June 17, 2010.

Monitoring European Integration, 13 (joint with Andrew Hughes Hallett, Anne Siebert, Rolf Strauch and Juergen von Hagen), November 2003, CEPR, London.

Monitoring the European Central Bank 4, (joint with David Begg, Paul de Grauwe, Fabio Canova and Phil Lane), April 2002, CEPR,London.

Book Review: "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theories, Practice and Policy Issues" Eds. Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger. Journal of Economic Literature, September 1999.

Discussion of "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Institutions" by Xavier Debrun. Moneda y Credito, 208, 1999.

Discussion of "Regional Non-adjustment and Fiscal Policy"  by Maurice Obstfeld and Giovanni Peri. Economic-Policy, April 1998.

Unpublished (older) Manuscripts

"Recoveries", (joint with Ilian Mihov)

"The Economics of Achieving Fiscal Sustainability." Paper prepared for the Academic Consultants Meeting at the Board of Governors, Federal Reserve (April 2010).

"The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence".(joint with Ilian Mihov).

"Aggregate Demand Externalities, Intermediate Inputs and Multiple Equilibria".