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Working Papers:

  • Bertani, N., Satopää, V. A., and Jensen S. "Spatiotemporal Modeling With Map Features and Socioeconomic Indicators: Application to Urban Crime in Philadelphia"
  • Satopää, V. A., Palley, A., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., and Persinger, C. "20 Years of Judgmental Forecasting at Eli Lilly and Company: Using Base Rates to Improve Group Predictions in Drug Development."

Papers Under Review:

  • Bertani, N., Satopää, V. A., and Jensen, S. "Joint Bottom-Up Method for Hierarchical Time-Series: Application to Australian Tourism" (Paper)
    • Invited Major Revision in Journal of American Statistical Association
    • Best Paper Award Finalist for 2020 INFORMS Workshop on Data Mining and Decision Analytics
  • Keppo, J., and Satopää, V. A. "Shepherding the Herd” (Paper)
    • Invited R&R in Management Science
  • Palley, A., and Satopää, V. A. "Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions" (Paper)
    • Invited Major Revision in Management Science
    • R-package metaggR is available on CRAN
  • Jia, Y., Keppo, J., and Satopää, V. A. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts" (Paper)
    • Invited Major Revision in Management Science
    • Runner-up for Decision Analysis Society (DAS) 2020 Student Paper Award
  • Satopää, V. A. “Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes.”
    • Invited Major Revision in International Journal of Forecasting
    • Revision Submitted
  • Satopää, V. A. “Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions.” (Paper)
    • Submitted
  • Satopää, V. A., Salikhov, M., Tetlock, P., and Mellers, B. "Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model."
    • Submitted
  • Powell, B., MacKay, N., Satopää, V. A., and Tetlock, P. "The Skew-adjusted Extremized-mean: A simple method for identifying and learning from informed minorities in groups of forecasters."
    • Submitted

Journal Publications:

  • Satopää, V. A., Salikhov, M., Tetlock, P., and Mellers, B. "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" Management Science (Paper).
    • R-package BINtools is coming soon! In the meantime, send me an email and I will respond as soon as the package is ready.
  • Satopää, V. A., Jensen, S. T., Pemantle, R., and Ungar, L. H. (2017) “Partial Information Framework: Aggregating Estimates from Diverse Information Sources.” The Electronic Journal of Statistics 11: 3781-3814. (Paper)
  • Satopää, V. A. (2016) Invited discussion of “Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations and Forecast Rankings” by Werner Ehm, Tilmann Gneiting, Alexander Jordan, and Fabian Krüger. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 78: 534-5.
  • Ernst, P., Pemantle, R., Satopää, V. A., and Ungar, L. H. (2016) “Bayesian Aggregation of Two Forecasts in the Partial Information Framework.” Statistics & Probability Letters 119: 170-180. (Paper). 
  • Satopää, V. A., Pemantle, R., and Ungar, L. H. (2016) “Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 111.516: 1623-1633. (Paper, Supplementary Material, Code)
  • Satopää, V. A., Jensen, S. T., Mellers, B. A., Tetlock, P. E., and Ungar, L. H. (2014). “Probability Aggregation in Time-Series: Dynamic Hierarchical Modeling of Sparse Expert Beliefs.” Annals of Applied Statistics 8.2: 1256-1280.  (Paper)
    • Winner of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science (SBSS) Student Paper Competition in 2015.
  • Satopää, V. A., Baron, J., Foster, D. P., Mellers, B. A., Tetlock, P. E., and Ungar, L. H. (2014). “Combining Multiple Probability Predictions Using a Simple Logit Model.” International Journal of Forecasting 30.2: 344-356. (Paper)
  • George, E., Rockova, V., Rosenbaum, P. R., Satopää, V. A., Silber, J. H. (2017) “Mortality Rate Estimation and Standardization for Public Reporting: Medicare’s Hospital Compare.” Journal of the American Statistical Association  112:519: 933-947. (Paper)
  • Silber, J. H., Satopää, V. A., Rockova, V., Wang, W., Hill, A., Even-Shoshan, O., George, E., and Rosenbaum, P. R. (2016) “Improving Medicare’s Hospital Compare Mortality Model.” Health Services Research 51.S2: 1229-1247. (Paper)
  • Klingenberg, B. and Satopää, V. A. (2013). “Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Comparing Margins of Multivariate Binary Data.” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 64: 87-98. (PaperSupplementary Material, (Fake) Data Set A and B of AEs, R/C++ Code for Restricted MLE, R/C++ Code for restricted GEE)
  • Satopää, V. A. and De Veaux, R. D. (2012). “A Robust Boosting Algorithm for Chemical Modeling.” Current Analytical Chemistry 8.2: 254-265. (Paper)

Publications in Refereed Conferences:

  • Ungar, L. H., Mellers, B., Satopää, V. A., Tetlock, P. E., and Baron, J. (2012). “The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions.” In 2012 AAAI Fall Symposium Series. (Paper)
  • Satopää, V. A., Albrecht, J., Irwin, D., and Raghavan, B. (2011). “Finding a “Kneedle” in a Haystack: Detecting Knee Points in System Behavior.” In ICDCSW ’11 Proceedings of the 2011 31st International Conference on Distributed Computing Systems Workshops, pp. 166-171. IEEE. (Paper, Code)


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